3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 · Ullern vs Vålerenga IF II
Likeliest: Ullern win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ullern42%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
Vålerenga IF II33%34%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 81% | −27 |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ullern
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Ready (A)3-4
- Sep 5 · v Asker (H)2-6
- Aug 30 · at Lokomotiv Oslo (A)3-2
- Aug 15 · v FK Union Carl Berner (H)4-1
- Aug 8 · v Gamle Oslo FK (H)2-5
Vålerenga IF II
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Gamle Oslo FK (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Konnerud IL (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Heming (A)2-5
- Aug 16 · v Ready (H)4-3
- Aug 8 · at Asker (A)4-5
| Last 10 games | Ullern | Vålerenga IF II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-4 | 4-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.