K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 17 · 07:30 · Ulsan HD vs Bucheon FC 1995
Likeliest: Ulsan HD win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ulsan HD57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Bucheon FC 199518%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ulsan HD
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Gwangju FC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Anyang (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Incheon United (H)2-1
- Sep 8 · v FC Seoul (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Jeju SK (A)0-0
Bucheon FC 1995
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 9 · at Gangwon FC (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Jeju SK (H)2-2
- Sep 8 · at Incheon United (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)0-5
| Last 10 games | Ulsan HD | Bucheon FC 1995 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 1-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.