K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 12 · 07:30 · Ulsan HD vs Incheon United
Likeliest: Ulsan HD win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ulsan HD42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Incheon United29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ulsan HD
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 8 · v FC Seoul (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Jeju SK (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)0-1
Incheon United
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 8 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Seoul (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)1-1
- Aug 26 · at FC Anyang (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Gwangju FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Ulsan HD | Incheon United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.