K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 · Ulsan HD vs Pohang Steelers
Likeliest: Ulsan HD win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ulsan HD47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Pohang Steelers25%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ulsan HD
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Gwangju FC (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · at FC Anyang (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Incheon United (H)2-1
- Sep 8 · v FC Seoul (H)1-0
Pohang Steelers
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v FC Anyang (H)0-0
- Oct 13 · v Johor Darul Ta'zim (H)0-2
- Oct 9 · at Incheon United (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v FC Seoul (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Beijing Guoan (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Ulsan HD | Pohang Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.