1. Lig (Turkey) · Wed, Oct 14 · 14:00 · Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor
Likeliest: Ümraniyespor win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ümraniyespor66%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Boluspor13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ümraniyespor
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v Sarıyer (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Bandırmaspor (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Antalyaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Pendikspor (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · v Muğlaspor (H)0-1
Boluspor
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Antalyaspor (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Sarıyer (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Pendikspor (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Bandırmaspor (A)0-6
- Sep 1 · v Keçiörengücü (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Ümraniyespor | Boluspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 0-0-10 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.