1. Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 24 · 10:30 · Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor
Likeliest: Ümraniyespor win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ümraniyespor42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Sivasspor29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ümraniyespor
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Boluspor (H)0-0
- Oct 9 · v Sarıyer (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Bandırmaspor (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Antalyaspor (H)1-2
Sivasspor
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Sarıyer (H)1-1
- Oct 13 · at Bandırmaspor (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Pendikspor (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Keçiörengücü (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Muğlaspor (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ümraniyespor | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.