Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:00 · Unión La Calera vs Universidad Católica
Likeliest: Universidad Católica win · 50%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Unión La Calera22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Universidad Católica50%48%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Unión La Calera
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Deportes Concepción (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Deportes Limache (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at O'Higgins (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v Deportes La Serena (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Audax Italiano (A)0-0
Universidad Católica
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Palestino (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Everton de Viña del Mar (A)1-0
- Sep 1 · v O'Higgins (H)3-2
- Aug 26 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Ñublense (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Unión La Calera | Universidad Católica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.