USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 21:00 · Union Omaha SC vs Fort Wayne FC
Likeliest: Union Omaha SC win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Union Omaha SC52%51%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Fort Wayne FC23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Union Omaha SC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 26 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-1
- Sep 20 · v One Knoxville SC (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Charlotte Independence (H)2-0
Fort Wayne FC
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 8 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)3-1
- Oct 3 · v Forward Madison FC (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Charlotte Independence (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FC Naples (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · v One Knoxville SC (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Union Omaha SC | Fort Wayne FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-0 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.