Botola Pro (Morocco) · Sat, Sep 26 · 16:00 · Union Touarga Sport vs Fath Union Sport
Likeliest: Union Touarga Sport win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 33%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Union Touarga Sport49%33%+16
OursMarket
Draw29%31%−2
OursMarket
Fath Union Sport22%36%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 38% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 64% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 67% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 48% | +21 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Union Touarga Sport
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Jul 21 · v JS Massira (H)3-0
- Jul 17 · at JS Massira (A)1-1
- Jul 5 · at Wydad Casablanca (A)2-1
- Jul 2 · v Ittihad Tanger (H)1-0
- Jun 28 · at AS FAR Rabat (A)2-2
Fath Union Sport
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Jul 5 · v Union Sportive Yacoub El Mansour (H)0-1
- Jul 2 · at Renaissance Zemamra (A)1-1
- Jun 28 · v RS Berkane (H)2-1
- Jun 25 · at Kawkab Athletic Club Marrakech (A)0-2
- Jun 21 · v Olympique Dcheira (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Union Touarga Sport | Fath Union Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.