Botola Pro (Morocco) · Thu, Oct 8 · 16:00 · Union Touarga Sport vs RS Berkane
Likeliest: RS Berkane win · 49%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Union Touarga Sport19%23%−4
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+2
OursMarket
RS Berkane49%47%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Union Touarga Sport
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 2 · at Widad Temara (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Fath Union Sport (H)2-1
- Jul 21 · v JS Massira (H)3-0
- Jul 17 · at JS Massira (A)1-1
- Jul 5 · at Wydad Casablanca (A)2-1
RS Berkane
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 27 · at Moghreb Atlético Tetuán (A)0-0
- Jul 5 · at Difaâ Hassani El-Jadidi (A)3-1
- Jul 2 · v Wydad Casablanca (H)2-0
- Jun 28 · at Fath Union Sport (A)1-2
- Jun 25 · v AS FAR Rabat (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Union Touarga Sport | RS Berkane |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.