Superettan (Sweden) · Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 · United IK Nordic vs Landskrona
Likeliest: United IK Nordic win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
United IK Nordic40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Landskrona31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
United IK Nordic
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 14 · at Örebro (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Värnamo (H)2-4
- Sep 4 · at Östers IF (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Norrköping (H)1-3
- Aug 26 · at Bollstanäs SK (A)2-0
Landskrona
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 15 · v GIF Sundsvall (H)4-0
- Sep 9 · v Helsingborg (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Norrby IF (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Östersunds FK (H)1-1
- Aug 24 · at Värnamo (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | United IK Nordic | Landskrona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-2 | 5-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.