Superettan (Sweden) · Sun, Oct 18 · 11:00 · United IK Nordic vs Norrby IF
Likeliest: United IK Nordic win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
United IK Nordic39%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
Norrby IF34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
United IK Nordic
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at IK Oddevold (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Landskrona (H)1-4
- Sep 14 · at Örebro (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Värnamo (H)2-4
- Sep 4 · at Östers IF (A)2-1
Norrby IF
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Östers IF (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Helsingborg (A)0-0
- Sep 14 · v Varbergs BoIS (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at Ljungskile SK (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Landskrona (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | United IK Nordic | Norrby IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-3 | 2-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.