LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Oct 11 · 16:00 · Universidad Católica del Ecuador vs Macará
Likeliest: Universidad Católica del Ecuador win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universidad Católica del Ecuador57%57%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Macará20%17%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 83% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 43% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at LDU (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v Orense SC (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Delfín (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Aucas (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Independiente del Valle (A)2-2
Macará
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Aucas (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Emelec (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Independiente del Valle (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · v Manta FC (H)4-3
- Aug 30 · at Orense SC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Universidad Católica del Ecuador | Macará |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.