LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Tue, Sep 15 · 00:00 · Universidad Católica del Ecuador vs Orense SC
Likeliest: Universidad Católica del Ecuador win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universidad Católica del Ecuador65%65%0
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Orense SC14%13%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 87% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 83% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 6 · at Delfín (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Aucas (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Independiente del Valle (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Manta FC (H)5-1
- Aug 18 · at Macará (A)1-1
Orense SC
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 8 · v Guayaquil City (H)4-3
- Sep 3 · at Leones del Norte (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Macará (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Barcelona SC (A)0-3
- Aug 16 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Universidad Católica del Ecuador | Orense SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-1 | 0-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.