Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Jul 26 · 00:00 · Universidad Católica vs Deportes La Serena
Likeliest: Universidad Católica win · 59%
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universidad Católica59%68%−9
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+4
OursMarket
Deportes La Serena17%11%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 54% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 89% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 32% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 86% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universidad Católica
WinLossWinWinWin
- Jun 14 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)5-1
- May 31 · at Huachipato (A)3-0
- May 29 · at Boca Juniors (A)1-0
- May 24 · v Colo Colo (H)1-2
- May 22 · v Barcelona Guayaquil (H)2-0
Deportes La Serena
WinLossDraw
- Jun 13 · at Audax Italiano (A)1-1
- May 30 · v Colo Colo (H)2-4
- May 24 · v Deportes Limache (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Universidad Católica | Deportes La Serena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — |
| Both teams scored | 50% | — |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.