Primera División (Chile) · Tue, Sep 1 · 00:45 · Universidad Católica vs O'Higgins
Likeliest: Universidad Católica win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universidad Católica62%52%+10
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−3
OursMarket
O'Higgins15%23%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 54% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 38% | 56% | −18 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 77% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 48% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 70% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universidad Católica
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 26 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Ñublense (H)1-2
- Aug 19 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)0-3
- Aug 12 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Cobresal (H)2-0
O'Higgins
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 23 · v Palestino (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Colo Colo (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · v Deportes Limache (H)1-3
- Aug 2 · at Deportes La Serena (A)2-1
- Jul 31 · v Boca Juniors (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Universidad Católica | O'Higgins |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.