Primera División (Chile) · Mon, Oct 12 · 20:00 · Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense
Likeliest: Universidad de Chile win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universidad de Chile60%63%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+2
OursMarket
Ñublense16%15%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 85% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 37% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universidad de Chile
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Deportes La Serena (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)4-2
- Aug 30 · at Universidad de Concepción (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Colo Colo (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Deportes Limache (A)3-1
Ñublense
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Everton de Viña del Mar (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Deportes La Serena (A)1-2
- Sep 3 · at Deportes Limache (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Deportes Concepción (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Universidad Católica (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Universidad de Chile | Ñublense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.