Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Oct 25 · 23:00 · Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache
Likeliest: Deportes Limache win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universidad de Concepción32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Deportes Limache39%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universidad de Concepción
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Cobresal (A)1-1
- Oct 2 · v Huachipato (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Palestino (A)1-2
- Sep 2 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Universidad de Chile (H)2-1
Deportes Limache
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Palestino (H)2-2
- Sep 14 · at Unión La Calera (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Cobresal (H)3-0
- Sep 3 · v Ñublense (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Everton de Viña del Mar (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Universidad de Concepción | Deportes Limache |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.