Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 11 · 18:00 · Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca vs Club Sporting Cristal
Likeliest: Club Sporting Cristal win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Club Sporting Cristal50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Sport Huancayo (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Cusco FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Los Chankas CYC (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v ADC Juan Pablo II (H)1-2
Club Sporting Cristal
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Club Atlético Grau (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at CD Moquegua (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Sport Boys (A)0-1
- Aug 21 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca | Club Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 1-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.