Liga 1 (Peru) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca vs Melgar
Likeliest: Melgar win · 58%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca16%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Melgar58%54%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 27% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Cienciano (A)0-1
- Oct 18 · v CD Moquegua (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Sport Huancayo (A)2-3
Melgar
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)4-2
- Oct 11 · at Universitario (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Sport Boys (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Cusco FC (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Asociación Deportiva Tarma (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca | Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-1-9 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.