Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:30 · Universitario vs ADC Juan Pablo II
Likeliest: Universitario win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Universitario54%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
ADC Juan Pablo II24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universitario
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)4-1
- Oct 11 · v Melgar (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · at Alianza Lima (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)2-2
ADC Juan Pablo II
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Sport Boys (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Comerciantes Unidos (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v CD Moquegua (H)4-0
- Sep 11 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Alianza Lima (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Universitario | ADC Juan Pablo II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.