Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 11 · 00:00 · Universitario vs Melgar
Likeliest: Universitario win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universitario51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Melgar18%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universitario
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · at Alianza Lima (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)4-2
- Aug 23 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)3-0
Melgar
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Sport Boys (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Cusco FC (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Asociación Deportiva Tarma (H)3-0
- Sep 1 · at Club Atlético Grau (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v Alianza Lima (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Universitario | Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.