Superliga (Romania) · Sun, Oct 18 · 18:00 · Universitatea Craiova vs FC Farul Constanța
Likeliest: Universitatea Craiova win · 66%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universitatea Craiova66%65%+1
OursMarket
Draw17%20%−3
OursMarket
FC Farul Constanța17%15%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 85% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universitatea Craiova
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 15 · v Getafe (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v FCSB (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at FC Corvinul Hunedoara (A)1-0
- Sep 7 · v FC Universitatea Cluj (H)4-0
FC Farul Constanța
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v FC Petrolul Ploieşti (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at FC Dinamo București (A)0-4
- Sep 11 · v UTA Arad (H)4-2
- Sep 4 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v FC Botoșani (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Universitatea Craiova | FC Farul Constanța |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 0-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.