Superliga (Romania) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:30 · Universitatea Craiova vs FCSB
Likeliest: Universitatea Craiova win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universitatea Craiova54%53%0
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
FCSB24%23%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 70% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universitatea Craiova
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 13 · at FC Corvinul Hunedoara (A)1-0
- Sep 7 · v FC Universitatea Cluj (H)4-0
- Aug 31 · at FC Rapid București (A)1-1
- Aug 27 · at FC Ararat-Armenia (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v FC Voluntari (H)3-1
FCSB
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 14 · v FC Petrolul Ploieşti (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at FC Dinamo București (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v UTA Arad (H)1-3
- Aug 23 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)0-1
- Aug 17 · v FC Botoșani (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Universitatea Craiova | FCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.