Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
Likeliest: Getafe win · 43%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Universitatea Craiova26%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Getafe43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Universitatea Craiova
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v FCSB (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at FC Corvinul Hunedoara (A)1-0
- Sep 7 · v FC Universitatea Cluj (H)4-0
- Aug 31 · at FC Rapid București (A)1-1
Getafe
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Barcelona (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Málaga (H)1-0
- Sep 17 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Celta Vigo (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Universitatea Craiova | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.