Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 25 · 18:45 · University College Dublin vs Bray Wanderers
Likeliest: Bray Wanderers win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
University College Dublin35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Bray Wanderers39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
University College Dublin
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · at Cork City (A)1-5
- Sep 11 · v Athlone Town (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Finn Harps (H)5-4
- Aug 21 · at Kerry FC (A)1-1
Bray Wanderers
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 18 · v Treaty United FC (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Kerry FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Cork City (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Athlone Town (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Longford Town (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | University College Dublin | Bray Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-2 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.