Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · University College Dublin vs Longford Town
Likeliest: University College Dublin win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
University College Dublin55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Longford Town21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 60% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
University College Dublin
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 2 · at Treaty United FC (A)4-0
- Sep 25 · v Bray Wanderers (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Cork City (A)1-5
- Sep 11 · v Athlone Town (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)1-1
Longford Town
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 2 · at Wexford FC (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v Cork City (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at Finn Harps (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Treaty United FC (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Kerry FC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | University College Dublin | Longford Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-2 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.