J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:30 · Urawa Red Diamonds vs JEF United Chiba
Likeliest: Urawa Red Diamonds win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Urawa Red Diamonds58%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
JEF United Chiba18%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Urawa Red Diamonds
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-3
- Oct 7 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)1-2
JEF United Chiba
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Urawa Red Diamonds | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-3 | 0-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.