Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Oct 7 · 09:00 · Urawa Red Diamonds vs RB Omiya Ardija
Likeliest: Urawa Red Diamonds win · 43%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Urawa Red Diamonds43%49%−6
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+4
OursMarket
RB Omiya Ardija27%25%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Urawa Red Diamonds
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)3-2
RB Omiya Ardija
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 4 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Oita Trinita (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Urawa Red Diamonds | RB Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | 2-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.