J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 25 · 06:00 · Urawa Red Diamonds vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Likeliest: Urawa Red Diamonds win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Urawa Red Diamonds50%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
V-Varen Nagasaki27%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Urawa Red Diamonds
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-3
- Oct 7 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)1-2
V-Varen Nagasaki
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Kashima Antlers (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · at JEF United Chiba (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Urawa Red Diamonds | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.