Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · USL Dunkerque vs Annecy FC
Likeliest: USL Dunkerque win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
USL Dunkerque41%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Annecy FC31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
USL Dunkerque
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Pau FC (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Saint-Étienne (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · v Clermont Foot (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Nancy (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · v Montpellier (H)0-1
Annecy FC
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 18 · v Dijon (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Guingamp (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Metz (H)1-1
- Aug 24 · at Stade de Reims (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | USL Dunkerque | Annecy FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.