Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · USL Dunkerque vs Metz
Likeliest: Metz win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
USL Dunkerque32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Metz41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
USL Dunkerque
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Nantes (A)3-2
- Oct 9 · v Annecy FC (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · at Pau FC (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Saint-Étienne (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · v Clermont Foot (H)1-1
Metz
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Sochaux (H)3-2
- Oct 12 · at Dijon (A)2-4
- Sep 19 · v Saint-Étienne (H)2-2
- Sep 14 · at Red Star FC (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Rodez AF (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | USL Dunkerque | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.