Superliga (Romania) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:15 · UTA Arad vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Likeliest: UTA Arad win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
UTA Arad42%44%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
CFR 1907 Cluj29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
UTA Arad
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at FC Botoșani (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Sepsi OSK (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at FC Farul Constanța (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (H)5-1
- Aug 30 · at FCSB (A)3-1
CFR 1907 Cluj
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 12 · at FC Argeș Pitești (A)1-0
- Oct 8 · v FC Universitatea Cluj (H)1-3
- Sep 19 · v FC Botoșani (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Sepsi OSK (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · v FC Farul Constanța (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | UTA Arad | CFR 1907 Cluj |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.