NWSL (USA) · Sun, Sep 27 · 23:00 · Utah Royals FC vs North Carolina Courage
Likeliest: Utah Royals FC win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Utah Royals FC41%41%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
North Carolina Courage33%34%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 2.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Utah Royals FC
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Angel City FC (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Houston Dash (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Orlando Pride (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)2-4
North Carolina Courage
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)6-0
- Aug 29 · at Kansas City Current (A)2-3
- Aug 27 · v Angel City FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Utah Royals FC | North Carolina Courage |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-4 | 4-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.