NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 01:30 · Utah Royals FC vs Seattle Reign FC
Likeliest: Utah Royals FC win · 36%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Utah Royals FC36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Seattle Reign FC36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Utah Royals FC
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Kansas City Current (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Racing Louisville (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · v North Carolina Courage (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Angel City FC (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Houston Dash (A)1-0
Seattle Reign FC
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)3-1
- Oct 3 · v North Carolina Courage (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Denver Summit FC (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Angel City FC (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Utah Royals FC | Seattle Reign FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.