J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Likeliest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · 71%
Likely score: 0–2
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
V-Varen Nagasaki9%14%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Sanfrecce Hiroshima71%66%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 64% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 29% | 34% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 86% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 12% | 17% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
V-Varen Nagasaki
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Kashima Antlers (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · at JEF United Chiba (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)2-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)2-0
- Oct 7 · v Iwaki FC (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | V-Varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.