Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Wed, Feb 4 · 20:00 · Valencia vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Valencia win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 34%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia50%34%+16
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
Athletic Club26%36%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 64% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 66% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 49% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 1 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Jan 24 · v Espanyol (H)3-2
- Jan 18 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Jan 15 · at Burgos (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v Elche (H)1-1
Athletic Club
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 1 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Jan 28 · v Sporting CP (H)2-3
- Jan 24 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- Jan 21 · at Atalanta (A)3-2
- Jan 17 · at Mallorca (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.