La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 22 · 17:30 · Valencia vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Valencia34%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid40%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Feb 15 · at Villarreal (A)1-1
- Feb 9 · v Leganés (H)2-0
- Feb 6 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-5
- Feb 2 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-1
- Jan 26 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-7
Atlético Madrid
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Feb 15 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
- Feb 4 · v Getafe (H)5-0
- Feb 1 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- Jan 29 · at Salzburg (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.