La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 2 · 14:15 · Valencia vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Valencia win · 44%
A 34% away win. The market says 21%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia44%54%−10
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−2
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid34%21%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 46% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 72% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Apr 25 · v Girona (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Elche (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-3
- Mar 21 · at Sevilla (A)2-0
Atlético Madrid
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 29 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
- Apr 22 · at Elche (A)2-3
- Apr 18 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-2
- Apr 14 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.