La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 6 · 14:15 · Valencia vs Barcelona
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 50%
A 29% home win. The market says 9%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia29%9%+19
OursMarket
Draw21%16%+5
OursMarket
Barcelona50%75%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 69% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 56% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 25% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 91% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 84% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 11% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 30 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-3
- Aug 25 · v Real Betis (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- May 23 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-1
- May 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)4-3
Barcelona
WinLossWinWinWin
- Aug 31 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)5-2
- Aug 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Elche (A)5-0
- May 23 · at Valencia (A)1-3
- May 17 · v Real Betis (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.