La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 5 · 14:15 · Valencia vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Valencia win · 46%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia46%40%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo28%30%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 44% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 60% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 57% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 21 · at Sevilla (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-2
- Mar 1 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
Celta de Vigo
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Mar 22 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-4
- Mar 19 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Mar 12 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-1
- Mar 6 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.