La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Aug 22 · 17:30 · Valencia vs Celta Vigo
Likeliest: Valencia win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 41%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia60%41%+19
OursMarket
Draw20%30%−10
OursMarket
Celta Vigo21%29%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 42% | +28 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 49% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 71% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 59% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 70% | +10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 58% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 23 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-1
- May 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)4-3
- May 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- May 10 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
Celta Vigo
No recent results tracked.
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.