La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 8 · 20:00 · Valencia vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 38%
A 38% away win. The market says 24%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia38%45%−7
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−7
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés38%24%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 39% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 46% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 76% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 65% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossLossWinLossWin
- Mar 1 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Feb 15 · at Levante (A)2-0
- Feb 8 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Athletic Club (H)1-2
Deportivo Alavés
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 27 · at Levante (A)0-2
- Feb 23 · v Girona (H)2-2
- Feb 14 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · v Getafe (H)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.