La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Valencia vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 54%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
FC Barcelona54%50%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 65% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
WinLossWinDrawWin
- May 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)4-3
- May 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- May 10 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Girona (H)2-1
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinLossWin
- May 17 · v Real Betis (H)3-1
- May 13 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Real Madrid (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Getafe (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Valencia | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.