La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Apr 25 · 16:30 · Valencia vs Girona
Likeliest: Valencia win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia46%45%+1
OursMarket
Draw28%28%−1
OursMarket
Girona27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 62% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Apr 21 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Elche (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-3
- Mar 21 · at Sevilla (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
Girona
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Apr 21 · v Real Betis (H)2-3
- Apr 10 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Athletic Club (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.