La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Dec 19 · 20:00 · Valencia vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Valencia win · 49%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia49%47%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−5
OursMarket
Mallorca26%23%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 40% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 67% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 16 · at Sporting Gijón (A)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-2
- Dec 7 · v Sevilla (H)1-1
- Dec 4 · at FC Cartagena (A)2-1
- Dec 1 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
Mallorca
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Dec 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Dec 5 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Dec 2 · at Numancia (A)3-2
- Nov 29 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.