La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 1 · 15:15 · Valencia vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Valencia win · 44%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia44%39%+5
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−6
OursMarket
Osasuna31%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 42% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 57% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Feb 22 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Feb 15 · at Levante (A)2-0
- Feb 8 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Athletic Club (H)1-2
- Feb 1 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
Osasuna
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Feb 21 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Feb 13 · at Elche (A)0-0
- Feb 6 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- Jan 24 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.