La Liga (Spain) · Thu, May 14 · 17:00 · Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Valencia win · 43%
We make it 60% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano29%27%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 46% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
LossDrawWinLossWin
- May 10 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Girona (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Elche (A)0-1
Rayo Vallecano
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- May 11 · v Girona (H)1-1
- May 7 · at Strasbourg (A)1-0
- May 3 · at Getafe (A)2-0
- Apr 30 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.