La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Aug 25 · 19:00 · Valencia vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Valencia win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 36%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia49%36%+13
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−5
OursMarket
Real Betis28%36%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 64% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 64% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 50% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 22 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- May 23 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-1
- May 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)4-3
- May 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- May 10 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
Real Betis
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Aug 21 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- May 23 · v Levante (H)2-1
- May 17 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- May 12 · v Elche (H)2-1
- May 9 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.