La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 8 · 20:00 · Valencia vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Valencia win · 41%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Valencia41%18%+23
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+1
OursMarket
Real Madrid36%60%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 40% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 82% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 23% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Valencia
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 4 · v Athletic Club (H)1-2
- Feb 1 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Jan 24 · v Espanyol (H)3-2
- Jan 18 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Jan 15 · at Burgos (A)2-0
Real Madrid
WinWinWinLossWin
- Feb 1 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
- Jan 28 · at Benfica (A)2-4
- Jan 24 · at Villarreal (A)2-0
- Jan 20 · v Monaco (H)6-1
- Jan 17 · v Levante (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Valencia | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.